El Niño and Colombian Coffee Production
The El Niño weather pattern is back and coffee producers in Colombia are concerned. Colombia is the world’s third leading producer of coffee and the leading producer of high quality Arabica coffee. Less rainfall, more sunny days, and higher temperatures are likely to affect coffee production, coffee diseases, and coffee quality. How long this lasts and how severe its impact will likely determine the quality as well as the price your cup of coffee in the coming year. Thus we are concerned about El Niño and Colombian coffee production.
What Is El Niño?
El Niño is a recurring weather phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean. Trade winds that normally blow west along the equator weaken or even reverse and blow east. Normally cold water rises from the ocean depths to replace the water flowing west. This ceases during an El Niño event and the jet stream moves south of its normally neutral position over the equator. Warm water can be pushed back east toward the west coast of the Americas during an El Niño event. While all of this creates more rainfall in the western USA, countries along the west coast of South America experience less rainfall. This includes the coffee growing regions of Colombia. El Niño occurs on the average every seven years but can happen every couple of years or not for ten years or more. The typical El Niño lasts less than a year but can last longer such as the 1991 to 1995 El Niño event.
How Does El Niño Affect Colombia?
Warmer and dryer weather caused by El Niño can affect both the main coffee crop in Colombia and the secondary mitaca crop. How long El Niño event this will last is a guess even for meteorologists. The most important time will be first months of 2024 with lower rainfall and higher temperatures throughout the coffee growing regions. Historically an El Niño event will increase production of the secondary or mitaca crop. The main crop can be increased or decreased.
A moderate El Niño event historically tends to increase Colombian coffee by fifteen or sixteen percent. A stronger event may even reduce production below average levels. A normal El Niño year will result in between one million three hundred thousand and one million eight hundred thousand extra bags of Colombia coffee production.
Specific issues include rainfall or lack of it when coffee plants are flowering. If plants become excessively dry at this time in can result in a much greater reduction in coffee production than otherwise anticipated. One blessing in disguise that comes with El Niño is that coffee leaf rust is less of a problem when coffee growing areas dry out.
Effect of El Niño On Colombia Coffee Quality
A typical El Niño event causes a substantial increase in coffee borer infestations. There is also typically an increase in the percentage of lower grades of coffee by as much as six to nine percent. Coffee borer infestations intend to increase by about five percent. Filling defects like “averanado” beans become more common as do smaller screen sizes, and black bean. As many as seven hundred thirty-two bags of substandard coffee above the average is being projected for this El Niño weather event.
Effects of El Niño and Latitude in Colombia
Historically the various regions of Colombia are affected differently by El Niño. Northern regions above 7 degrees north latitude and regions below 3 degrees north latitude are less affected by El Niño events. These areas include Huila and east of Caldas. Altitude and cloud cover can be major factors in whether El Niño helps of hurts the local coffee crop.
Is It Real Kona Coffee?
Here at Buy Organic Coffee we commonly promote coffee from Colombia. However, we always note that there are all sorts of good coffees throughout the world. Our point regarding coffee from Colombia is that there is more uniformly excellent Arabic coffee in Colombia that anywhere else in the world. One of world’s great coffees comes from the Hawaiian Islands, Kona coffee. While Hawaii produces about 2.4 million pounds of Kona a year, Colombia produces about 1,491 million pounds of Arabic coffee a year. Like Colombian coffee, Kona is unique and commands a higher-than-average price. This invites imitation and so the question arises, is it real Kona coffee?
Copycat Kona
As noted in an article in The New York Times, there are lots of folks selling cheaper types of coffee and calling it Kona. A recent lawsuit helped Kona growers with their fight against counterfeit beans. We have written about how great coffee is commonly grown in rich volcanic soil. Volcanic ash is an excellent fertilizer. It also includes lots of unique minerals in greater quantities than normal soil, Thus, one can find higher levels and unique ratios of things like barium to nickel or strontium to zinc. A recent lawsuit, settled out of court, used this approach to show that several large companies were marketing non-Kona coffee as Kona.
How Expensive Is Kona Coffee?
Kona coffee is very good. It is also produced in much lower quantities than coffees from Colombia, Brazil, Vietnam, and other big producing countries. This relative rarity helps keep the price up in the $50 a pound range. In addition, Kona coffee is grown on small farms with lots of manual labor, making it more expensive to produce than coffee from mechanized operations. The point is that anyone who can fool the public into thinking that an average coffee with an average wholesale price is Kona, can make out like a bandit! The recent lawsuit may have helped deter the former amount of copycat Kona being sold as the settlement ran in the $41 million range!
What Does a Coffee Brand Name Mean?
As a rule, customers trust certain brands of products that they buy. This is generally because these products are of consistently high quality. Such is the case with coffee from Colombia and with Kona coffee. As noted in the Times article, Swiss cheese and French fries are generic terms and do not tell us that the product came from Switzerland or France. However, when someone buys Kona coffee they are expecting coffee that was grown in the Hawaiian Islands in the specific regions where Kona coffee comes from. The testing done in the lawsuit helps confirm the uniqueness of Kona coffee. However, like with Colombian coffee, Kona is grown by folks whose families have work on the same farms in a coffee culture more than a century old. Nobody is banning other folks from selling coffee. What they are doing is making sure that when someone gets Kona coffee they are getting the real thing and not a cheaper imitation that cheapens the public’s sense of what Kona coffee is all about. The same applies when you see Juan Valdez on the package and can be assured that your coffee is from Colombia.
What Is the Colombian Cafetero?
The third leading producer of coffee in the world is Colombia. It is the biggest producer and exporter of the highest quality Arabica coffee. The historical, geographic, and cultural center of Colombian coffee growing is in three districts or departments in the western part of Colombia. These are Risaralda, Caldas, and Quindío and are also called the coffee triangle or (coffee growing axis. In Spanish these are triangulo de café and eje Cafetero). Although these three departments lie at the heart of the Colombian coffee culture and cafetero, nearby departments such as Nariño, Tolima, Valle de Cauca, Huila, Norte de Santander, Antioquia and Cauca are also big producers of Arabica coffee. All of this is located in the Andes Mountain range in the west of Colombia in a coffee culture that is two hundred years old and rich volcanic soil.
Coffee in Colombia
Coffee came to the New World and Colombia with European settlers. A Jesuit priest, José Gumilla, wrote in 1730 about coffee growing in the east of Colombia. Commercial production is first recorded from the early 19th century when coffee was first exported from the port of Cucuta. Today’s main coffee growing region of Colombia was colonized in the middle of the 19th century with founding of the city of Manizales, Caldas.
Volcanic Soil and Colombian Coffee
Volcanic soil provides the base for the best coffees in the world. This kind of soil comes from ancient lava flows and accumulated volcanic ash. It is rich in nutrients like potassium, phosphorus, zinc, iron, boron, calcium, sulfur, silicon, sodium, magnesium, and other trace elements. It belongs to a class or soils called andisols. These soils have a high capacity to hold water and have a high content of volcanic glass and are able to fix phosphorus. It takes centuries for lava flows to weather and break down into soil. However, volcanic ash is available immediately as a soil nutrient. Nevado del Ruiz, in the Colombian cafetero is an the active volcano that produces a plume ash and fumes every day of every year.
Promoting Colombian Coffee
There are a lot of great coffees in the world. What makes the Colombian coffee triangle unique is that it produces uniformly great coffee in much bigger quantities than any place else on earth. In order to make coffee production a profitable undertaking coffee growers in Colombia need to find ways to effectively market their coffee. This began in earnest at a marketing agency in New York City in 1959. The fictional character Juan Valdez was created. The goal was to identify Colombian coffee as a single origin product of exceptionally high quality.
The term eje Cafetero came years later and further identified the region at the core of Colombian coffee production. This region was originally part of the department of Caldas. At the start of the 19th century Caldas was divided up into the departments of Quindío, Risaralda, and Caldas. Thus old Caldas (Viejo Caldas) is the eje cafetero of Colombia or coffee triangle.
Coffee Grows Everywhere in the Colombian Cafetero
Coffee grows the best where it is cloudy and rains much of the time. It loves rich volcanic soil such as in the coffee triangle of the west of Colombia. Coffee does not do well standing in water. Thus it does well growing on slopes of which there are plenty in this part of Colombia. It is the primary cash crop for farmers in the mountainous region of western Colombia. Along the Carrera de Café or coffee highway from Manizales to Pereira coffee grows on pretty much every available slope. The families there go back as far as two centuries as coffee farmers.
Tree Canopy Cover and Coffee Leaf Rust
Coffee grows naturally in the shade. Thus a tree canopy that is natural or made up of crops like plantain results in shade grown coffee. However, coffee leaf rust is a serious fungal disease that threatens coffee crops. Coffee leaf rust thrives on moisture. Thus, if a tree canopy cover increases leaf moisture it could result in more coffee leaf rust and defeat the purpose of the canopy in the first place. What is the relationship between tree canopy cover and coffee leaf rust?
On Site Study of Coffee Leaf Rust and Tree Canopy Cover
Fortunately the issue of how tree canopy cover affects or does not affect coffee leaf rust infestations has been studied. Tree effects on coffee leaf rust were studied from Latin America and Africa. Issues looked at included interactions of trees and plant diseases such as fungi and specifically coffee leaf rust. It turns out that trees can both inhibit and promote coffee leaf rust on coffee plants growing beneath the tree canopy. There are specific tree leaf traits and canopy characteristics that reduce the risk of coffee leaf rust. These include thin canopies with lots of openness, short tree height, small and dentate leaves, and horizontal branching.
Trees and Coffee Diseases
Coffee leaf rust is not the only coffee disease affected by trees. Others include American leaf spot disease of coffee, Armillaria root rot or Pink Disease, Coffee leaf scorch or Brown Eye Spot, Dieback syndrome, phoma leaf blight, and coffee berry disease. A major factor for some of these fungal diseases is that the tree canopy inhibits leaf drying and thus provides a home for the fungal disease. For others the tree canopy and especially trees at the edge of the farm that slow wind speeds protect against distant wind borne fungus entering the coffee growing area.
Different Trees for Different Purposes for Inhibiting Leaf Rust
Trees that let more light through the canopy are useful for coffee plants beneath them. However, on the edges of a coffee farm it works well to have large trees with huge canopies, waxy, thick, small leaves that reduce wind speeds that reach the interior coffee growing area. Pruning trees every year to maintain the ideal characteristics is ideal. Data in this study came from onsite observations in real coffee farms under real conditions over years. The ideal situation on any given coffee farm is typically obtained after trial and error over the years. General principles will, however, apply. Too much moisture encourages fungal growth. Thus a balance needs to be struck between the benefits of growing coffee in the shade and letting moisture remain too long on coffee leaves.
Which Trees Do Coffee Farmers Use and Why?
In any given area there are a lot of possible tree species to use to provide shade for coffee. However, in any given region there are a handful of favorites used by coffee farmers. This is usually for a preference for nitrogen-fixing varieties, ones that are easy to prune, ones that produce fruit, or ones that can be cut down for sale as timber. As a practical matter, coffee farmers will typically use the tree varieties that they and their family have always used unless problems arise.
The bottom line for a coffee farmer who uses trees to grow coffee in the shade is that they need to pay attention, prune the canopy as needed, and clean up the sorts of clutter that promote fungal plant diseases.
SlideShare Version – Tree Canopy Cover and Coffee Leaf Rust
How Weather and Climate Affect Coffee Leaf Rust
Coffee leaf rust is a constant threat for crops everywhere in the world. This fungal plant disease is the reason that a country like Colombia grows about 80% of its coffee using resistant strains of Arabica and only 20% using non-resistant Arabica strains at much higher altitudes. It is generally accepted that coffee leaf rust is more of a problem at lower altitudes where temperatures are higher and less of a problem at higher altitudes where temperatures are lower. A problem in a coffee growing region like Colombia is that it is full of micro-climates because of the extent of its mountainous terrain. Thus, sorting out effects of climate versus effects of local weather on coffee leaf rust can be difficult.
Fungal Plant Diseases and the Weather
There are more than nineteen thousand fungi causing crop infestations across the world. Many lie dormant until local environmental conditions trigger them. According to the US Department of Agriculture, between ten and twenty percent of agricultural production is lost every year due to fungal diseases. This is an issue of food security. Because many fungi are beneficial, eradicating all fungi is not a good idea. Because environmental speciation is a major factor with fungal plant diseases, the problem commonly comes down to how the local farmer deals with the problem on their farm. In the western Andes in Colombia microclimates are the norm so that the relationship between fungal plant diseases and the weather varies from one area to the next even when separated by only a few kilometers.
Climate Versus Weather and Coffee Leaf Rust in Colombia
Researchers from the University of Exeter looked at coffee leaf rust infestations in the coffee growing region of Colombia. They used climate reanalysis data to model coffee leaf rust risk. Specifically, they tested the hypothesis that the severe coffee leaf rust outbreak from 2008 to 2011 was related to climate changes instead of short term weather factors. Their model used leaf wetness duration and temperature as factors likely to make coffee leaf rust infestations worse. Their conclusion was that at so far as the 2008 to 2011 leaf rust epidemic was concerned it was not related to climate changes.
The best these folks could do was compare canopy wetness, temperature, and infection risk over the years. They admit that accurate on the ground measurements are difficult to obtain. What coffee farmers experience is that non-resistant strains do not do well at lower altitudes where temperatures are higher. This is why the fifth of Colombian coffee production by original Arabica non-resistant varieties is all at the highest altitudes.
Because local factors are so important with plant diseases like coffee leaf rust, more often than not the best judge of what coffee varieties to plant and how to handle an individual patch of land is commonly best handled by the coffee farmer whose family has probably farmed there for generations.
Coffee Leaf Rust Prevention
A coffee farmer cannot control the weather but can plan based on local experience. Clearing away residue that encourage fungal growth is useful. There are also fungicides containing copper that are useful against coffee leaf rust. However, they need to be applied before an infestation to prevent it and not afterward to treat it. The copper tends to improve crop yields but is not a viable option if the coffee farmer wants to maintain organic coffee certification.
SlideShare Version – How Weather and Climate Affect Coffee Leaf Rust
Why Is Arabica Coffee Expensive?
When they buy coffee at the market or order a cup of Java with their meal, some folks are only interested in the caffeine and others are looking for the excellent aroma and taste that comes with an Arabica coffee. For those who only want enough caffeine to stay awake, Robusta coffee is cheaper and has a higher caffeine content. The reason that coffee house coffee is more expensive is that they use Arabica coffee beans from places like the Colombian coffee triangle. So, why is Arabica coffee expensive? Is it all about the market for better tasting coffee or is there more to the story?
Coffee Harvest for Arabica vs Robusta
Both Arabica and Robusta coffee plants take three to four years from when they are planted until they bear fruit. Both will typically keep producing coffee beans for twenty-five to thirty years and then taper off but potentially keep producing for up to fifty years or even more. During that time a Robusta coffee plant routinely outproduces an Arabica plant by about thirty to forty percent yield. This is assuming that both plants remain healthy and produce year after year.
Coffee Leaf Rust and Other Coffee Diseases
The British grew coffee on the island of Ceylon (now Sri Lanka) until the middle of the 19th century until a fungal disease killed all of the coffee plants which was when they switched to growing tea forcing much of the British public to become tea drinkers instead of coffee drinkers. Coffee leaf rust has wiped out vast areas of coffee production over the years spreading across the East Indies to Africa and in about 1950 to Brazil from where it spread bit by bit up through Colombia and into Central America and Mexico.
How Plant Diseases Like Leaf Rust Affect Coffee Prices
Developing newer varieties of Arabica that are cross bred from resistant strains and growing Arabica only at higher elevations where it is cooler have helped Arabica production recover but made Arabica more expensive to grow and more scarce. Climate change with progressively higher temperatures has driven Arabica production higher into the mountains also thus reducing output and driving prices up. Fortunately for Robusta coffee, it is resistant to coffee leaf rust and many other coffee plant diseases. Thus it can be grown at lower elevations and is not prone to having whole fields wiped out by plant disease. This makes Robusta cheaper to grow and maintain so the coffee farmer can sell at a lower price than Arabica and still make a profit.
The Market Determines the Price of Coffee
The eternal problem for coffee farmers in the mountains where coffee grows best is the same for farmers everywhere. When there is a great year with ideal weather, no new crop diseases, and, thus, a bumper crop, the price of their crop falls. This problem is often compounded by exchange rates. Coffee is priced in dollars and is quoted on the New York Mercantile Exchange. You can walk into coffee cooperative office in the heart of the Colombian coffee triangle and see a TV screen with up-to-the-minute price quotes in dollars and conversions to Colombian pesos. Every time Brazil has a bumper crop the price of Arabica falls and when they have drought and production falls the price goes up everywhere. Because Robusta can grow and produce in dryer conditions it is less prone to such variations in crop yield and thus less prone to such extreme price variations.
What Is Organic Coffee?
The pinnacle of the coffee world is organic coffee. So what is organic coffee? The organic label means that the coffee you are drinking was grown, processed, and stored according to sustainable agricultural practices and not mixed with coffee that does not meet this standard. The short version is that organic coffee is free from the roughly one hundred fifty impurities that can routinely be found in regular coffee grown by regular means. Roughly three percent of commercially available specialty coffee is organic.
Certification of Coffee As Organic
Coffee may be totally organic but you, the consumer, do not know that since you live in somewhere North of the coffee belt that is in the tropics. The coffee probably comes from near Manizales, Colombia, in the Colombian coffee belt, was likely grown around 8,000 feet altitude in rich volcanic soil and miles away from any nearby city. Luckily there are organizations that go to coffee farms and make sure that all of the boxes have been checked so that the coffee you are drinking is organic. The label on your bag of coffee says USDA Certified but the US Department of Agriculture delegates the certification job to local experts. The only coffee the US resident drink that is grown in the USA is grown in Hawaii where the USDA does the certifying.
Criteria for Organic Coffee Certification
Coffee falls under the same rules that the USDA uses for all organic foods. Here is what they say.
In order for coffee to get organic certification, the land it was grown on has to have been free of herbicides, pesticides, or synthetic fertilizers for three years or more and there has to be a buffer of land between the organic coffee crop and adjacent non-organic crops. This has to be demonstrated to the certifying agent before certification can be obtained. Additionally, organic coffee is processed, stored and shipped separate from other coffee.
Organic food is produced without using most conventional pesticides; fertilizers made with synthetic ingredients or sewage sludge; bioengineering; or ionizing radiation. Before a product can be labeled ‘organic,’ a Government-approved certifier inspects the farm where the food is grown to make sure the farmer is following all the rules necessary to meet USDA organic standards. Companies that handle or process organic food before it gets to your local supermarket or restaurant must be certified. Organic food is produced by farmers who emphasize the use of renewable resources and the conservation of soil and water to enhance environmental quality for future generations. Organic meat, poultry, eggs, and dairy products come from animals that are given no antibiotics or growth hormones.”
When you insist on the organic label for your coffee you can be assured that the coffee is high quality because nobody goes to all of the trouble of organic farming without producing a superior product. Thus, besides being free of impurities, grown according to strict standards, and processed to perfection, your coffee is Arabica of the highest quality.
Gourmet Organic Coffee
Besides organic coffees the other set of expensive coffees are gourmet coffees. May gourmet coffees are, in fact, grown organically. Thus they are free of impurities, tend to have higher levels of antioxidants, and generally taste a lot better than the average cup of coffee. As we noted, because organic growers put more effort into their crop much of that work results in gourmet quality coffee at the same time that it satisfies organic requirements.
What Is Organic Coffee? – SlideShare Version
Should You Drink Low Acid Coffee?
Coffee is the drink for a morning wakeup and afternoon pick me up. It has many health benefits. But what if coffee gives you heartburn or an upset stomach because of acid? Should you drink less coffee? Should you go with decaf? Should you drink low acid coffee? For that matter, what is low acid coffee?
Why Can Coffee Upset Your Stomach?
Drinking coffee can stimulate acid secretion in your stomach. This is because of the caffeine in your coffee. Going with a Colombian Arabica instead of a Robusta like Death Wish Coffee will help this. Then the coffee itself has acid content and, in fact, Arabica coffees with their high antioxidant content also are a bit more acidic. Roast makes a difference as light roast coffees are more acidic while a dark roast is less acidic. Espressos are less acidic than other coffees due to the short brewing time. And cold brewing results in a less acidic coffee as well.
Coffee Alternatives
You can find coffee brands that advertise lower acid content but remember that they have caffeine which will cause your stomach to secrete acid. Decaf coffee gets around the body’s secretion of acid and a dark roast reduces the coffee’s acid content. Cold brew, espresso are also alternatives. Drinking coffee that is not so strong and drinking fewer cups a day are reasonable approaches to reducing acid. In addition, avoid drinking a lot of coffee on an empty stomach as there is no food there to dilute the effects of the coffee. When you filter your coffee use a paper filter instead of metal as this traps some of the acid.
Chicory Coffee
At times when coffee has not been available people have used roots of the chicory plant to make a coffee substitute. The roots are roasted and ground and provide a non-acidic substitute for coffee. There are types of mushroom coffee that work in a similar fashion. While both of these get around the acid issue, they also eliminate real coffee from your diet.
Not All Heartburn Is Only Because of Coffee
Heartburn happens when acid from the stomach refluxes up into the esophagus. This happens because a band of muscle called a sphincter is not working properly. Many people who do not drink coffee and are careful with their diets need to take medicines like omeprazole (an acid blocker) to avoid having damage and a stricture in their esophagus. You probably do not want to be taking lots of drugs because you are drinking a dozen cups of coffee a day but if one or two cups causes problems ask your doctor about something for your acid reflux heartburn.
How about a Nice Cup of Tea?
Unfortunately, tea also contains caffeine and other chemicals that cause the stomach to secrete more acid. Pretty much any drink that gives you a boost like coffee does also tends to increase acid secretion. Using milk in your tea or coffee helps buffer some of that acid but too much cream (fat) can reverse that benefit by provoking more acid or bile secretion which does not get better with acid blockers!
In the end the best answer to the problem of too much coffee causing acid is to cut back on your coffee intake to where you are not getting heartburn.
Colombian Coffee Triangle
There are many excellent coffees in the world but the region where one can find universally excellent coffee in the greatest quantities is in the West of Colombia in the Paisa region of largely rural Colombia. This region is the coffee triangle but is also called the coffee growing axis (Eje Cafetero in Spanish). The region produces the majority of Colombia’s coffee and includes the departments of Caldas, Quindío, and Risaralda as well as the Northern regions of the Cauca Valley and Tolima. The main cities in this area are Manizales, Armenia, Pereira, and Ibagué.
Commercial Coffee Production in Colombia
Coffee production in Colombia was commercialized at the beginning of the 19th century with earliest coffee growing in the regions around the original Spanish missions. It was in the mid-19th century that the now-famous fourteen families traveled to the series of mountain ridges where Manizales is located today and began growing coffee in what became the heart of Colombian coffee production, the department of Caldas. Today the dominant departments for coffee production include Antioquia, Caldas, Cundinamarca, Huila, Nariño, Norte de Santander, Quindío, Risaralda, Tolima, and Valle del Cauca. Of these regions the greatest producers are still Caldas, Risaralda, Quindío and Tolima.
Why Does the Coffee Triangle Grow Great Coffee?
In the Colombian coffee triangle they only grow high quality Arabica coffee. Geographically this region is the Andean rainforest with temperatures ranging from 8 to 24 degrees Celsius. Rainfall is plentiful and the soil is rich and volcanic with the region lies just west of Colombia’s Northern Volcanic Front where the still-active volcano Nevada del Ruiz continually spews ash in a plume from its summit. Additionally, this region has not gone to overly mechanized coffee farming. This is partly because of the mountainous terrain but also because they simply produce better coffee with their grain by grain approach. The Juan Valdez character used in advertising Colombian coffee represents a Paisa coffee farmer from this region.
Coffee Culture Landscape World Heritage Site
This unique region was designated a world heritage site by the United Nations in 2011 which includes 18 urban areas and 6 sites within the coffee triangle. The specific areas were chosen as representative of different types of traditional coffee growing and culture. These include Riosucio, Pereira, Salamina, Calarcá and Armenia as well as smaller towns and coffee farms throughout rural, mountainous areas. As a result of this added attention to the region theme parks have been developed such as the Colombian National Coffee Park in Quindío as well as the Museum of Culture Coffee where various processes are demonstrated. These facilities also demonstrate aspects of traditional culture such as folk dances and celebrations.
Visiting the Colombian Coffee Triangle
For a foreigner who wants to visit the Colombian Coffee Triangle the best cities for setting up a “base camp” are Manizales followed by Pereira. Manizales can be reached by regional flights from Bogota as can Pereira and Pereira also has once a day evening flights from Panama. Manizales is a smaller city with a 400,000 population and our first choice for a visit. An ideal hotel with a spectacular view of the mountains and Nevada del Ruiz is the Caretero on Avenida Santander. Be aware that in neither Manizales nor Pereira or throughout the coffee triangle English is not commonly spoken and rarely understood so brush up on your Spanish or bring a pocket dictionary.
Where Does Your Coffee Come From?
Americans love their coffee. Although Northern European countries like Finland, Denmark, Sweden, and the Netherlands drink more coffee per capita the larger US population times a high consumption rate results in the US drinking more coffee than any other nation. Where does all of this coffee come from? The only state in the US that grows coffee is Hawaii so the US gets her coffee from the topical coffee belt that in the western hemisphere starts in Mexico and extends to Brazil. The two biggest producers in this region are Brazil which is the biggest producer of coffee overall and Colombia which is the biggest producer of Arabica coffee.
US Green Coffee Imports
The United States Department of Agriculture June 2022 pdf covering world markets and trade for coffee reports that the majority of imported unroasted coffee is Arabica of which the most is imported from Brazil followed by Colombia. Imports from these two nations have increased at the expense of imports from Mexico and Central America mostly because production has increased substantially in the two biggest South American producers.
Imports of Arabica Versus Robusta
Over the last decade the US has imported increasing amounts of Arabica coffee at the expense of Robusta with Arabica going from 68% of imports to 80% during those years. Because of inflation in the coffee market as well as everywhere else, Arabica prices are outpacing Robusta prices causing the USDA to speculate that US coffee roasters might start buying more Robusta and selling blends of Arabica and Robusta to remain competitive in pricing. Over the last decade Arabica imports went from 16.1 million bags a year to 19.4 million bags while Robusta fell from 3.5 million bags to 2.6 million bags.
Increased Coffee Imports from Brazil and Colombia
Over the last decade Brazil has increased its US market share from 29% to 36% while Colombia’s market share has gone from 17% to 23%. During this decade Mexico fell from an 8% share to 4% and Central America as a group fell from 25% to 23%. Because much of this reshuffling of market share came from increased Colombian and Brazilian production there could well be a trend reversal if Central America catches up. The report does not note the degree to which the Colombian civil war has cooled down and allowed production to resume in previously troubled regions.
World Coffee Production Increases
Production is up this year largely because of Brazil and the fact is that this is the “on” year of the two-year production cycle, important coffee growing regions are recovering from a severe frost in 2021 as well as drought. The increase is also being fueled by Brazil’s increasing production of Robusta going from 21.7 million bags to 22.8 million bags. Meanwhile production in Vietnam fell from last year’s record harvest to 30.8 million bags this year of which 95% is Robusta. Arabica production in Colombia will be flat this year as fertilizer shortages due to Russia’s war in Ukraine have limited potential gains. Production is estimated to come in at 13 million bags with 11.8 million to be exported to the USA.