A severe drought in Brazil, the world’s largest coffee producer, is significantly impacting coffee prices globally. Reduced rainfall and extreme heat in key coffee-growing regions like Minas Gerais and São Paulo have led to lower crop yields, decreasing supply and driving up prices. This has caused a notable increase in green coffee bean prices and is now affecting roasters, retailers, and ultimately, consumers, with higher prices at cafes and supermarkets.
How Long Will the Drought and High Prices Last?
Current price and climate conditions have been issues for about a year, since mid-2024. As we have previously written, longer term concerns exists due to likely temperature increases over the coming years. The current situation started out as part of the El Niño, La Niña cycle of Pacific Ocean currents along the West Coast of South America but seem to turning into one of the cycles of longer duration.
Brazil and the Global Coffee Supply Chain
Brazil has historically been the world’s leading coffee producer and exporter by volume. It is the largest Latin American country and has a long history of coffee growing. Vietnam in recent years has also become a major coffee producer, occasionally matching Brazil in exports albeit with Robusta coffee beans and not Arabica. Thus, when Brazil’s coffee production suffers it has a significant effect on total coffee availability, both Arabica and Robusta. While Colombia is a major coffee producer of almost exclusively Arabica beans it never has the same magnitude of effect on coffee prices as Brazil does. The same applies to producers like Honduras, Costa Rica, Ecuador, and Peru. Although Vietnam has had climate issues as well, coffee production throughout the Indonesian archipelago has not suffered. Thus coffee growers there, as well as in countries like Colombia are having a prosperous year with normal production and historically high prices as the supply chain has adjusted it price to account for less overall coffee volume being available in 2025.
What Can Brazil Do to Deal with Its Drought?
ng term options for coffee growers in Brazil include irrigation. However, this is generally only a viable solution for large operations with lots of cash and lots of credit. It is likely not a viable option for small coffee farmers who are being forced to simply “weather the storm.” It remains to be seen how many small, family coffee farms may go out of business should the drought and supply chain disruption persist for another year or two.
How Will Brazil’s Drought Affect Your Coffee?
A severe drought in Brazil, the world’s largest coffee producer, is significantly impacting coffee prices globally. Reduced rainfall and extreme heat in key coffee-growing regions like Minas Gerais and São Paulo have led to lower crop yields, decreasing supply and driving up prices. This has caused a notable increase in green coffee bean prices and is now affecting roasters, retailers, and ultimately, consumers, with higher prices at cafes and supermarkets.
How Long Will the Drought and High Prices Last?
Current price and climate conditions have been issues for about a year, since mid-2024. As we have previously written, longer term concerns exists due to likely temperature increases over the coming years. The current situation started out as part of the El Niño, La Niña cycle of Pacific Ocean currents along the West Coast of South America but seem to turning into one of the cycles of longer duration.
Brazil and the Global Coffee Supply Chain
Brazil has historically been the world’s leading coffee producer and exporter by volume. It is the largest Latin American country and has a long history of coffee growing. Vietnam in recent years has also become a major coffee producer, occasionally matching Brazil in exports albeit with Robusta coffee beans and not Arabica. Thus, when Brazil’s coffee production suffers it has a significant effect on total coffee availability, both Arabica and Robusta. While Colombia is a major coffee producer of almost exclusively Arabica beans it never has the same magnitude of effect on coffee prices as Brazil does. The same applies to producers like Honduras, Costa Rica, Ecuador, and Peru. Although Vietnam has had climate issues as well, coffee production throughout the Indonesian archipelago has not suffered. Thus coffee growers there, as well as in countries like Colombia are having a prosperous year with normal production and historically high prices as the supply chain has adjusted it price to account for less overall coffee volume being available in 2025.
What Can Brazil Do to Deal with Its Drought?
ng term options for coffee growers in Brazil include irrigation. However, this is generally only a viable solution for large operations with lots of cash and lots of credit. It is likely not a viable option for small coffee farmers who are being forced to simply “weather the storm.” It remains to be seen how many small, family coffee farms may go out of business should the drought and supply chain disruption persist for another year or two.
How Will Brazil’s Drought Affect Your Coffee?
The price of high quality Arabica coffee beans will likely remain historically high until Brazil’s drought lets up. In addition we are likely to see more mixing of Robusta with Arabica which will reduce coffee quality for those unwilling to pay “premium” prices.
Welcome to the world off coffee as climate issues directly affect supply, price and quality.
If you want to keep drinking the best coffee, we suggest as always the you buy coffee from Colombia.