We have written previously on the pages of buyorganiccoffee.org about the changing climate and how higher temperatures are already affecting where high quality Arabica coffee can be grown and how the total area where all coffee can be grown may be reduced over the years. Now the Weather Network reports that ninety-seven percent or more of worldwide coffee production may be affected by rising global temperatures, especially in the coffee belt. The following graph, courtesy of the Weather Network, shows us a snapshot of the projected number of days a year when temperatures will rise into the range harmful for coffee production. The graph gives figures for major coffee producers including Brazil, Vietnam, Colombia, Ethiopia, and Indonesia. These five nations produce three fourths of all coffee consumed worldwide.
Courtesy the Weather Network
Higher Temperatures Will Result in Lower Yields and Poorer Quality
The article that accompanies the graph notes something that we have previously commented on. Arabica coffee needs moderate to cool temperatures to produce optimal yields, avoid diseases, and maintain expected excellent quality. As higher temperatures drive production to higher altitudes in order to avoid excessive heat less and less land will be available for growing the best quality coffee. Even for Robusta, which is hardier than Arabica, excessive temperatures result in lower than optimal yield and quality.
High Temperature Will Affect More Than the Five Top Coffee Producers
The Weather Network article notes that while the five top producers are affected so are all of the top twenty-five, which are responsible for ninety-seven percent of coffee output.
However, the number of day of excessive temperatures each year is not uniform across all countries. As the graph shows, Ethiopia and Colombia currently have fewer excessively hot days a year than Brazil, Indonesia, and Vietnam. This is most likely because coffee in Colombia and Ethiopia is generally grown at higher altitudes already.
Lower Supply and Continued High Demand Will Likely Drive Coffee Prices Higher
Coffee is second most valuable traded commodity next to crude oil. The market determines prices and as supplies of the best coffee go down the price of high quality Arabica and even good Robust will go up. It may well be that we will become used to coffee with worse flavor and aroma than today even as we pay higher prices. Such will probably be the fallout as higher temperatures affect nearly all of world coffee production.
What Can You Do to Get a Good Cup of Cup of Coffee as the Climate Warms?
We at BuyOrganicCoffee.org have traditionally recommended coffee purchased directly from in and around the Colombian coffee triangle which lies west of the Colombian northern volcanic front. Get your coffee from Colombia by dealing directly with someone like Buy Organic Coffee. Get coffee that is not only Arabica from the most recent harvest but also coffee of the highest quality at reasonable coffee prices. Cenicafe, the research arm of Colombian coffee growers has routinely developed new varieties resistant to coffee diseases and will in all likelihood develop strains that better tolerate excessive heat in the years to come.