Arabica coffee costs more per pound than robusta coffee. The price difference over the years has varied from arabica being a fourth more expensive to being more than twice as expensive. What drives the price difference between arabica and robusta? Can we expect to see the price difference increase or decrease over the next years and decades?

How Much Does the Arabica to Robusta Price Difference Vary?

Statista provides a price comparison of average prices for arabica and robusta over several years. The price variation from 25% to more than 200% comes from 2014 to projected 2025 numbers.

Arabica always commands a higher price than robusta because it reliably has better flavor and aroma. The price of robusta tends not to fluctuate all that much while the supply of arabica can drive prices up when there is a shortage and down when there is excess production. What we have seen over the years has generally been simply seasonal variation in arabica. However, with the climate warming year after year, we expect to see arabica production limited to higher and higher altitudes and shrinking as available land becomes limited.

Will Arabica and Robusta End Up Being the Same?

We have written a lot about how countries like Colombia have created strains of arabica that are more resistant to diseases like coffee leaf rust while retaining the superior flavor and aroma seen with arabica. Something similar is happening in the world of robusta coffee. Growers, especially in Asia but also Central and South America, are cross breeding robusta strains with arabica strains in an attempt to produce “specialty” robusta which will command higher prices that standard robusta. Indonesia is in the process of developing a robusta grading system similar to those used for arabica in order to facilitate a market for higher quality robusta. Thus arabica producers in search of hardier arabica strains and robusta producers looking for higher quality without losing hardiness may well meet in the middle with the result being either a great tasting robusta equal to a hardier arabica! These efforts could, potentially, lead to a single variety of coffee instead of the two that dominate commercial coffee production today.

What Will Happen With the Arabica to Robusta Price Difference?

If the current arabica and robusta coffees continue to maintain their respective qualities, we expect to see lower arabica production over time to a greater extent than any reduction in robusta output. This would cause a greater price differential between the two. To the extent that attempts to cross breed robusta and arabica varieties succeed, that will end up reducing the differences between these varieties of coffee and, consequently, the price difference as well.

Will We See More Caffeine in Our Arabica or More Flavor in Our Robusta?

In today’s world of coffee, we have two basic choices, cheaper coffee with more caffeine and less flavor versus more expensive coffee with more flavor and less caffeine. If plant breeder in Asia or the Americas succeed in their efforts, coffee lovers may find that in the years to come they do not need to give up their caffeine if they switch to arabica and that they will not need to pay a premium for better flavor because there will be a middle ground where arabica to robusta hybrids provide the best of both worlds of coffee!