The price of coffee shot up in 2025 to more than $4 a pound on international markets for standard coffee and higher for the best grades such as coffee from the Eje Cafetero in Colombia. This was a supply versus demand effect prompted by a severe drought in Brazil, the country that produces the most coffee, more than Vietnam, which produces primarily Robusta coffee beans. and more than Colombia which grows almost exclusively Arabica coffee. The World Bank accurately predicted higher coffee prices at the start of 2025. The price of coffee in 2026 looks like it will be much lower than in 2025 based on CME coffee futures which as of December 2025 were at $3.33 a pound for May delivery and $ 3.11 for December delivery. This happened despite worries about continuing drought conditions in the Brazilian Amazon albeit better weather in coffee growing regions. By the middle of January 2026 May futures were $3.14 and December 2026 futures were $3.02 as a consensus emerged regarding higher production and lower coffee prices in 2026. As of February it has become clear that lower coffee prices are going to locked in for the year.
Projected Coffee Production in 2026
Projections are for 2026 to be a banner year for Brazilian coffee production with more than 70 million sixty-pound bags which will be the highest ever. Likewise coffee production of Robusta in Vietnam will likely exceed 31 million sixty-pound bags while Colombia is expected to top 16 million sixty-pound bags in the 2026 to 2027 season. The sum total of such projections has served to reverse the coffee price trend caused by a prolonged el Niño la Niña weather event and Brazilian drought.
How Will Cheaper Coffee Still Be Good Coffee in 2026?
Excellent news for the coming year is that not only will Brazil’s coffee production surpass all previous years but their production high quality Arabica coffee beans will also be the greatest ever. Thus, coffee lovers will not be drinking cheaper and worse coffee but rather high quality coffee at lower prices.
How Will Lower Coffee Bean Prices Affect the Price of Your Cup of Coffee?
If you buy green coffee beans and roast your own coffee you may see a slight decrease in what it costs you to brew a good cup of coffee. If you order your coffee beans directly from the source in Colombia, you will see not only a lower price but higher quality as you will not be chancing having beans long in storage sent to you but rather coffee from the most recent harvest. Consider coffee from Colombia as your best choice in 2026. Unfortunately for coffee drinkers who frequent coffee shops, the substantial markup from green coffee beans on the farm through shipping, transport, roasting, and running a coffee house business is such that the savings of a dollar or so for a pound of coffee beans from the source will make little or no difference when you buy your espresso drink at your local coffee house. Likewise, the roasted and bagged coffee you buy at the store will still have the substantial roaster markup. So, do not expect to see a big price break albeit you can expect to see lots of really good coffee available in the year to come.